US lawmakers have been discussing details of a second stimulus package for over 4 months now. Democrats passed a $3 trillion package, the HEALS Act, back in May, and since then there have been several more proposals, and, well, just talking.

Nothing has been signed into law to help the American people. We took a step back to examine what the odds are there will be a second stimulus package before the 2020 US Election.

Stimulus Package Conversation: Here's Where We've Been

This past week Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both said they were in contact and talking about the potential to get a deal done.

As we have covered in our near daily YouTube videos on stimulus and small business funding, it has been a rollercoaster of stimulus talks since May. The key players on the Republican side, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Secretary Mnuchin, have refused to go above the ~$1 trillion mark.

On the Democrats side, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Pelosi, have refused to go lower than $2 trillion to get a deal done. Originally, Democrats were holding firm at $3 trillion, but conceded to go down a trillion.

Last week, a bipartisan group proposed a $1.5 trillion package as a good compromise which would include individual stimulus checks, another round of PPP funding, funding for state and local governments, and much more. However, this package has larger been dismissed by Pelosi and Mnuchin.

If you're curious, we put together a detailed timeline of the coronavirus stimulus conversations over the past 6 months here (and below video).

Here's The New $2.4 Trillion Stimulus Proposal Just Proposed

Earlier this week, in an attempt to restart stalled negotiations, the Democrats announced they were putting together a $2.4 trillion package. We discussed this proposal in detail and why this could potentially be different.

For example, there is more of the "stuff" Republicans want, such as funding for airlines and less funding for state and local governments.

However, that being said, to us, it seems like just another rehash of the several packages we've seen over the past several months. There's no indication that "repackaging" a deal will actually lead Pelosi and Mnuchin to reach an agreement.

Why Is the Stimulus Package "Negotiation" Taking So Long?

Put simply, it's political. Sure, there are fiscal concerns by Republicans, but most leaders have come out and said "spend whatever it takes", including President Trump and Mnuchin.

On the Republican's side, Senator McConnell is fighting for his re-election (as well as filling Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's open Supreme Court Seat), and has been less focused on a stimulus deal in the past several weeks. Same thing for Trump.

On the Democrats side, they're also wary that if any deal is reached, especially this close to the election, Trump and Republicans will take credit for it and use it to support their campaigns.

Since July, We've Put The Odds Very Low on a Stimulus Deal Getting Passed Before the Election

While covering the daily talking points between lawmakers — and simultaneously writing thousands of letters to support increased EIDL grant funding — we predicted a stimulus deal would not get done before the election.

This is partly due to politics, as mentioned. In addition, it's easier for lawmakers, unfortunately, to take a wait and see approach. And finally, early voting has already begun in several states. The window to pass something for political benefit is closing fast.

With less than 40 days until the US Presidential Election, we put the odds of a stimulus deal being agreed upon very low — less than 5%

If There's No Stimulus Deal, What Financial Help Alternatives Exist?

Since May, we've also focused on covering grant and loan opportunities for both individuals and small businesses. Frankly, your best bet is to look into these options in your town, city, or state. There are also some national programs.

For example, Los Angeles is providing funding to certain hospitality businesses and Washington DC is providing grants to restaurants. There are also national programs. Shaquille O'Neal partnered with American Express on a $10 million grant program for Black owned businesses.

Another grant program for minority-owned businesses was the Lowes-LISC $20,000 grant. The current application cycle is closed but it may reopen another one soon.

New Small Business Grant and Individual Grant Opportunities

Two things to note: The SBA curates grant opportunities just like us. We will be publishing a new grant list next week (so be sure to follow our Facebook or Instagram pages). Here is the latest information on grants from the SBA.

Second, we're donating 100% of our YouTube revenue this month to give out stimulus checks to subscribers of our YouTube channel. We will be announcing winners this week, on October 1st or 2nd. Be sure to watch the video here or below.

Finally, this is a new announcement: We have decided today that we will be giving out $500 stimulus checks. Two reasons for this: This is based on direct feedback from you on our YouTube channel, and this will allow us to help even more people. We're excited to announce the recipients this coming week.